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Budget deficits and the value of the dollar: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Payesteh, Sayeed

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the statistical relation between the U.S. budget deficits and the value of the dollar using cointegration and error-correction techniques. When quarterly data are used over the period 1971-1990, we find no evidence of cointegration. However, when we incorporate 1985 intervention in the foreign exchange market into cointegration analysis, we find strong evidence of cointegration between two variables. The error-correction models yield results that support bidirectional causality between the value of the dollar and budget deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Payesteh, Sayeed, 1993. "Budget deficits and the value of the dollar: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 661-677.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:15:y:1993:i:4:p:661-677
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & David Bernstein, 1999. "Exchange market pressure during the current managed float," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 585-588.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Rhee, Hyun-Jae, 1997. "Structural change in import demand behavior, the Korean experience: a reexamination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 187-193, April.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Mirzaie Aghdas, 2000. "The Long-Run Effects of Depreciation of The Dollar on Sectoral Output," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-61.
    4. M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
    5. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa & Michael Kurth, 1997. "Integration and causality in US mortgage and T-bond markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 445-447.
    7. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Altin Tanku, 2006. "Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 57-69, March.
    9. Naledi C. Modisaatsone & G.R. Motlaleng, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Botswana`s imports," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 125-138.
    10. Henri Atangana Ondoa, 2013. "Gouvernance et croissance économique en Afrique," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(2), pages 130-147, June.
    11. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    12. Srinivasan P., 2014. "Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange rate Nexus: The Case of India," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(52), pages 77-94, June.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    14. Matiur Rahman & Muhammed Mustafa & Eldon Bailey, 1996. "US budget deficits, inflation and exchange rate: a cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 365-368.

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