IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v78y2018icp201-211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of longevity drift and investment volatility on income sufficiency in retirement

Author

Listed:
  • Mayhew, Les
  • Smith, David
  • Wright, Douglas

Abstract

In 2014 the Government announced radical proposals which now allow people to withdraw money from their pension pot from age 55, ‘how they want, subject to their marginal rate of income tax in that year’. The main effect of this change will be to put more onus on the individual to make sure they have sufficient resources to last for their retirement, but it also removes the obligation to annuitise their funds at any future age. This paper is concerned with how people can best use their pension pots by aligning them to their personal financial objectives and longevity risks. It finds that for most people annuitising is not the best option, except for a few circumstances, and that draw down is preferable, especially where there is a bequest motive and the individual has assets such as property to fall back on. These options are low risk if simple rules are followed but they are not a substitute for professional advice and should only be used in conjunction.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayhew, Les & Smith, David & Wright, Douglas, 2018. "The effect of longevity drift and investment volatility on income sufficiency in retirement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 201-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:78:y:2018:i:c:p:201-211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.09.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668717304456
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.09.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Les Mayhew & Martin Karlsson & Ben Rickayzen, 2010. "The Role of Private Finance in Paying for Long Term Care," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 478-504, November.
    2. Karlsson, Martin & Mayhew, Les & Rickayzen, Ben, 2007. "Long term care financing in four OECD countries: Fiscal burden and distributive effects," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 107-134, January.
    3. Les Mayhew & David Smith, 2014. "Personal Care Savings Bonds: A New Way of Saving Towards Social Care in Later Life*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 39(4), pages 668-692, October.
    4. Les Mayhew & David Smith, 2014. "Gender Convergence in Human Survival and the Postponement of Death," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 194-216.
    5. Blake, David & Wright, Douglas & Zhang, Yumeng, 2014. "Age-dependent investing: Optimal funding and investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans when members are rational life cycle financial planners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 105-124.
    6. Karlsson, Martin & Mayhew, Les & Rickayzen, Ben, 2007. "Long term care financing in 4 OECD countries: fiscal burden and distributive effects," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 34405, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. Karlsson, Martin & Mayhew, Les & Rickayzen, Ben, 2009. "Individualised life tables: investigating dynamics of health, work and cohabitation in the UK," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 34404, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Les Mayhew, 2017. "Means Testing Adult Social Care in England," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(3), pages 500-529, July.
    2. Joan Costa-Font & Martin Karlsson & Henning Øien, 2015. "Informal Care and the Great Recession," CINCH Working Paper Series 1502, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Competent in Competition and Health, revised Feb 2015.
    3. Rinaldo Brau & Matteo Lippi Bruni, 2008. "Eliciting the demand for long‐term care coverage: a discrete choice modelling analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 411-433, March.
    4. Kwon Hyuk-Sung & Lee Chang-Soo & Hur Jun-Soo, 2012. "Projecting the Cost of Long-Term Care Insurance in Korea," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Hong Mi & Zhenzhen Yang & Tiantian Zhang, 2012. "Factors influencing Chinese long-term care," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1/2/3), pages 31-42.
    6. Joan Costa‐Font & Martin Karlsson & Henning Øien, 2016. "Careful in the Crisis? Determinants of Older People's Informal Care Receipt in Crisis‐Struck European Countries," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 25-42, November.
    7. Martin Eling & Omid Ghavibazoo, 2019. "Research on long-term care insurance: status quo and directions for future research," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 303-356, April.
    8. Alain Paraponaris & Bérengère Davin & Pierre Verger, 2012. "Formal and informal care for disabled elderly living in the community: an appraisal of French care composition and costs," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 13(3), pages 327-336, June.
    9. R. Tamara Konetzka & Daifeng He & Jing Dong & John A. Nyman, 2019. "Moral hazard and long-term care insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 231-251, April.
    10. Ruth Hancock & Marcello Morciano & Stephen Pudney & Francesca Zantomio, 2015. "Do household surveys give a coherent view of disability benefit targeting?: a multisurvey latent variable analysis for the older population in Great Britain," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 815-836, October.
    11. Dong, Yinghui & Zheng, Harry, 2019. "Optimal investment of DC pension plan under short-selling constraints and portfolio insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 47-59.
    12. Minney, Aaron & Zhu, Zili & Guo, Ying & Li, Jiaming & Toscas, Peter & Koo, Bonsoo & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Using the pension multiple to measure retirement outcomes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Zeng, Yan & Li, Danping & Chen, Zheng & Yang, Zhou, 2018. "Ambiguity aversion and optimal derivative-based pension investment with stochastic income and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 70-103.
    14. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    15. Hancock, Ruth & Malley, Juliette & Wittenberg, Raphael & Morciano, Marcello & Pickard, Linda & King, Derek & Comas-Herrera, Adelina, 2013. "The role of care home fees in the public costs and distributional effects of potential reforms to care home funding for older people in England," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 47-73, January.
    16. Zhang, Linwan & Wu, Weixing & Wei, Ying & Pan, Rulu, 2015. "Stock holdings over the life cycle: Who hesitates to join the market?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 423-438.
    17. Iwanicz-Drozdowska Małgorzata & Rogowicz Karol & Smaga Paweł, 2023. "Market-moving events and their role in portfolio optimization of generations X, Y, and Z," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(4), pages 371-397, December.
    18. Teodoras Medaiskis & Tadas Gudaitis & Jaroslav Mečkovski, 2018. "Second pension pillar participants' behaviour: the Lithuanian case," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(2), pages 620-635, December.
    19. Blake, David & Duffield, Mel & Tonks, Ian & Haig, Alistair & Blower, Dean & MacPhee, Laura, 2022. "Smart defaults: Determining the number of default funds in a pension scheme," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    20. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:78:y:2018:i:c:p:201-211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.