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Volatility of volatility and leverage effect from options

Author

Listed:
  • Chong, Carsten H.
  • Todorov, Viktor

Abstract

We propose model-free (nonparametric) estimators of the volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency observations of short-dated options. At each point in time, we integrate available options into estimates of the conditional characteristic function of the price increment until the options’ expiration and we use these estimates to recover spot volatility. Our volatility of volatility estimator is then formed from the sample variance and first-order autocovariance of the spot volatility increments, with the latter correcting for the bias in the former due to option observation errors. The leverage effect estimator is the sample covariance between price increments and the estimated volatility increments. The rate of convergence of the estimators depends on the diffusive innovations in the latent volatility process as well as on the observation error in the options with strikes in the vicinity of the current spot price. Feasible inference is developed in a way that does not require prior knowledge of the source of estimation error that is asymptotically dominating.

Suggested Citation

  • Chong, Carsten H. & Todorov, Viktor, 2024. "Volatility of volatility and leverage effect from options," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:240:y:2024:i:1:s0304407624000150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105669
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Characteristic function; Leverage effect; Nonparametric estimation; Options; Volatility of volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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