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An individual-based model to describe a bullhead population dynamics including temperature variations

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Listed:
  • Charles, Sandrine
  • Subtil, Fabien
  • Kielbassa, Janice
  • Pont, Didier

Abstract

Global change could affect the structure and function of ecosystems in complex ways. In particular, gradual climate warming and fragmentation of ecosystem habitats are known to impact strongly on aquatic populations. To tackle this question we have developed a dedicated, stochastic, spatial, individual-based model of the global bullhead population dynamics at the river network scale taking into account the influence of annual mean temperature. This article focused on the model description and its validation with experimental field data. We introduced temperature fluctuations and their impact on various demographics traits, such as growth, reproduction and survival. Several effect submodels were defined to describe these relationships, leading to a set of 40 parameters. The model was written in C++, and provided several population characteristics, such as individual numbers per age-class and network compartment over the course of time. The results were compared to experimental field data, and the model robustness was validated by a complete sensitivity analysis based on a cluster analysis followed by a co-inertia analysis. The population dynamics appeared to be mainly conditioned by changes in temperature, which had a particularly great impact on the juvenile survival rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles, Sandrine & Subtil, Fabien & Kielbassa, Janice & Pont, Didier, 2008. "An individual-based model to describe a bullhead population dynamics including temperature variations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 215(4), pages 377-392.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:215:y:2008:i:4:p:377-392
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.04.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Munro, J.L. & Pauly, D., 1983. "A simple method for comparing the growth of fishes and invertebrates," Fishbyte, The WorldFish Center, vol. 1(1), pages 5-6.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chubaty, Alex M. & Roitberg, Bernard D. & Li, Chao, 2009. "A dynamic host selection model for mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(9), pages 1241-1250.
    2. Baetens, J.M. & Van Nieuland, S. & Pauwels, I.S. & De Baets, B. & Mouton, A.M. & Goethals, P.L.M., 2013. "An individual-based model for the migration of pike (Esox lucius) in the river Yser, Belgium," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 258(C), pages 40-52.

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