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Global vulnerability of agricultural commodities to climate risk: Evidence from satellite data

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  • Ding, Yugang
  • Xu, Jiangmin

Abstract

Using a new dataset of high-resolution satellite readings of soil moisture in conjunction with climate-economy econometric models and machine learning methods, we quantify the risk to global agricultural commodities from climate change. Our climate risk measure based on soil moisture fluctuations has a significantly negative impact on the yield of major cereals, and the effect is greater than temperature and precipitation. This impact concentrates on countries with lower income levels, harsher climate conditions, or less irrigated farmland. Moreover, we show agricultural commodities are less vulnerable to current drought risks in countries with higher frequencies of past droughts, suggesting that countries adapt to climate change through learning from prior experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Yugang & Xu, Jiangmin, 2023. "Global vulnerability of agricultural commodities to climate risk: Evidence from satellite data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 669-687.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:80:y:2023:i:c:p:669-687
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.09.013
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate risk; Climate change; Soil moisture; Agricultural commodities; Satellite data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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