A three-state recursive sequential Bayesian algorithm for biosurveillance
AbstractA serial signal detection algorithm is developed to monitor pre-diagnosis and medical diagnosis data pertaining to biosurveillance. The algorithm is three-state sequential, based on Bayesian thinking. It accounts for non-stationarity, irregularity and seasonality, and captures serial structural details of an epidemic curve. At stage n, a trichotomous variable governing the states of an epidemic is defined, and a prior distribution for time-indexed serial readings is set. The technicality consists of finding a posterior state probability based on the observed data history, using the posterior as a prior distribution for stage n+1 and sequentially monitoring surges in posterior state probabilities. A sensitivity analysis for validation is conducted and analytical formulas for the predictive distribution are supplied for error management purposes. The method is applied to syndromic surveillance data gathered in the United States (US) District of Columbia metropolitan area.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.
Volume (Year): 58 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda
Bayesian sequential update; Dynamic control; Syndromic surveillance;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.