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Unravelling the myths of R0 in controlling the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak: A modelling perspective

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  • Mohd, Mohd Hafiz
  • Sulayman, Fatima

Abstract

COVID-19 is an emerging and rapidly evolving pandemic around the world, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and results in substantial morbidity and mortality. To examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, we investigate the spread of this pandemic using Malaysia as a case study and scrutinise its interactions with some exogenous factors such as limited medical resources and false detection problems. To do this, we employ a simple epidemiological model and analyse this system using modelling and dynamical systems techniques. We discover some contrasting findings with respect to the observations of basic reproduction number: while it is observed that R0 seems to provide a good description of transmission dynamics in simple outbreak scenarios, this quantity might mislead the assessment on the severity of pandemic when certain complexities such as limited medical resources and false detection problems are incorporated into the model. In particular, we observe the possibility of a COVID-19 outbreak through bistable behaviour, even when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Based on these findings, we caution policy makers not to make their decisions solely based on the guidance of the basic reproduction number only, which clearly could cause trouble.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Sulayman, Fatima, 2020. "Unravelling the myths of R0 in controlling the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak: A modelling perspective," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303428
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109943
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    Cited by:

    1. Khairulbahri, Muhamad, 2021. "Lessons learned from three Southeast Asian countries during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1354-1364.
    2. Kamarul Imran Musa & Wan Nor Arifin & Mohd Hafiz Mohd & Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin & Noor Atinah Ahmad & Xin Wee Chen & Tengku Muhammad Hanis & Awang Bulgiba, 2021. "Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Ghufran Ahmad & Furqan Ahmed & Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Javed Muhammad & Syeda Hira Fatima & Aamer Ikram & Hajo Zeeb, 2021. "Evaluating data-driven methods for short-term forecasts of cumulative SARS-CoV2 cases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Gandzha, I.S. & Kliushnichenko, O.V. & Lukyanets, S.P., 2021. "Modeling and controlling the spread of epidemic with various social and economic scenarios," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

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