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Estabilidad macroeconómica y crecimiento económico: mitos y realidades

Author

Listed:
  • Le Fort Varela, Guillermo
  • Gallardo, Bastián
  • Bustamante, Felipe

Abstract

Se exploran relaciones empíricas entre crecimiento sostenido del PIB y volatilidad macroeconómica, utilizando datos de World Economic Outlook para el período 1980-2015, tanto en estadísticas descriptivas como en regresiones de panel con efectos fijos (FMI, 2016). Los resultados desmienten ciertos mitos, como los que sostienen que más inflación genera más crecimiento, que la estabilización conlleva costos reales o que la entrada de grandes flujos de capitales externos estimula el crecimiento. Mostramos que la inflación genera impactos negativos tangibles sobre el crecimiento y que existen “umbrales de inflación” pasados los cuales esos impactos aumentan. Mayor inflación se asocia con mayor volatilidad nominal y real, definida como volatilidad cíclica del PIB. Además, la volatilidad de la cuenta corriente contribuye significativamente a la volatilidad real. Finalmente, se muestra que la volatilidad real incide negativamente sobre el crecimiento tendencial del PIB y se concluye que la volatilidad macroeconómica no contribuye al crecimiento ni al bienestar.

Suggested Citation

  • Le Fort Varela, Guillermo & Gallardo, Bastián & Bustamante, Felipe, 2020. "Estabilidad macroeconómica y crecimiento económico: mitos y realidades," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:45956
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    Cited by:

    1. Le Fort Varela, Guillermo & Gallardo, Bastián & Bustamante, Felipe, 2020. "Macroeconomic stability and economic growth: myths and realities," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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