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El impacto de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico: un estudio empírico de México (1994-2016)

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  • Vaca, Jesús
  • Vaca Medina, Gustavo
  • Mora Pérez, César Omar

Abstract

A partir de la literatura reciente sobre el mismo tema, en este artículo se analiza el impacto de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico de México entre 1994 y 2016, en un contexto macroeconómico mundial de marcados aumentos en los indicadores de deuda del sector público, debido a las estrategias fiscales expansivas adoptadas tras la crisis de 2007-2008. Los principales objetivos de este estudio son determinar si la relación entre estas dos variables ha seguido una trayectoria no lineal en forma de U invertida, y encontrar el umbral más allá del cual los aumentos de la deuda generan disminuciones marginales en el crecimiento. Utilizando un modelo dinámico, se demuestra la existencia de una relación no lineal en forma de U invertida y se encuentra un umbral del 27% en la relación entre deuda y PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaca, Jesús & Vaca Medina, Gustavo & Mora Pérez, César Omar, 2020. "El impacto de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico: un estudio empírico de México (1994-2016)," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:45430
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    Cited by:

    1. Jimenez, Ivett & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Análisis sobre la incidencia de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador durante el periodo 1990-2019 [Analysis of the incidence of public debt on the economic growth of Ecuador duri," MPRA Paper 113666, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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