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A Forecasting Model on Carrying Capacity for Government's Controlling Measure under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting Non-Recursive Autoregression based on the Var-X Model

Author

Listed:
  • Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee

    (Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Wang Mai, Khet Pathum Wan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand.)

  • Danupon Ariyasajjakorn

    (Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Wang Mai, Khet Pathum Wan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand.)

Abstract

This research aimed to analyze the relationship of causal factors and forecast CO2 emissions for a 15 years period from 2020 to 2034 by applying a non-recursive autoregression vector autoregression with an exogeneous model (Non-Recursive Var-X model). The Non-Recursive Var-X model has been made available for use in long-term forecasting (2020-2034), particularly in regards to the implementation of the Industry 4.0 policy of the Thai government. The study found that the results of the Thai government s efforts or governmental power (GP) will likely lead to levels of CO2 emissions that exceed the country s carrying capacity as determined under its national strategic plan. The findings of this study show that CO2 emissions are expected to have a growth rate of 27.23 percent (2020-2034), reaching 95.88 Mt CO2 Eq by 2034. The Non-Recursive Var-X model provides a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.12% and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.25%. In this research, the Non-Recursive Var-X model was used and CO2 emissions were forecasted to rise continuously over the established period. This rise exceeds the carrying capacity of Thailand according to the criteria set by the Thai government.

Suggested Citation

  • Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee & Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, 2020. "A Forecasting Model on Carrying Capacity for Government's Controlling Measure under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting Non-Recursive Autoregression based on the Var-X Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 645-655.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-06-83
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee & Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of Causal Factors on Political Management to Determine Sustainability Policy under Environmental Law: Enriching the Covariance-based SEMxi Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 282-293, July.
    2. Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee & Danupon Ariyasajjakorn & Apinyar Chatchorfa & Boonton Dockthaisong & Sthianrapab Naluang & Sirapatsorn Wongthongdee & Nachatchaya Thongjan, 2021. "Indicators of Environmental and Economic Problems Priority Arising from Energy Use in Food Manufacturing Sector in Realizing Sustainable Development Policy under Thai Environmental Law Framework," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 600-608.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-recursive model; Sustainability policy; Carrying capacity; Energy consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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