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Application of the Stochastic Markov Model in Predicting the Volume of Oil Spill in Nigeria: A Case of the Niger-delta Region

Author

Listed:
  • Ifeoma Christy Mba

    (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)

  • Emmanuel Ikechukwu Mba

    (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)

  • Winnie Ogonna Arazu

    (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)

  • CHINASA E. URAMA

    (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)

  • Chioma Henrietta Machebe

    (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)

  • Chikodili Eze

    (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)

Abstract

Oil spillage in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria and its associated hazard is on the increase and there is urgent need to combat its increasing volume by predicting the volume in the future thus, the objective of this study is on the prediction of the volume of oil spill in Nigeria via the Stochastic Markov Model. Two States Markov analysis were employed and it was discovered that the volume of oil spill incident were mostly maintained in a high state than in a low state and the predicted values were approximately steady at a probability value of 0.519 which is in favour of the high state. The study concluded that for the Nigerian Federal government to combat the volume of oil spill, she should in addition to enforcing the laws governing the volume of oil spill incident, employ remediation process that would help clean up the mess caused the spillage.

Suggested Citation

  • Ifeoma Christy Mba & Emmanuel Ikechukwu Mba & Winnie Ogonna Arazu & CHINASA E. URAMA & Chioma Henrietta Machebe & Chikodili Eze, 2019. "Application of the Stochastic Markov Model in Predicting the Volume of Oil Spill in Nigeria: A Case of the Niger-delta Region," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 110-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-04-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman Offstein, 2002. "An Extortionary Guerilla Movement," Documentos CEDE 1977, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    2. Ifeoma Christy Mba & Emmanuel Ikechukwu Mba & Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor & Winnie Ogochukwu Arazu, 2019. "Causes and Terrain of Oil Spillage in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria: The Analysis of Variance Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 283-287.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      occurrence; oil spill; Niger Delta;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
      • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
      • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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