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Granger Causality Between Gross Domestic Product and Economic Sectors in Developing Countries: A Panel Co-integration Approach

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  • Sima Siami-Namini

    (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Texas Tech University)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to explore the causal relationship between GDP and economic sectors including agricultural, industrial, and services growth and oil price using a balanced panel data of 62 developing countries observed over the period of 1990 to 2014. The results of multiple regressions show that industrial and services value-added share of GDP and oil price are the positive influencing factor of the GDP of developing countries. In contrast, agricultural value-added share of GDP identifies as a negative influencing factor of the GDP. To examine the Granger causal relationship between variables, the vector error correction model (VECM) and Wald tests statistics are applied. The findings show a long run relationship of Granger causality between variables and show a short run bi-directional Granger causality between GDP and agriculture and service and oil price and a short run unidirectional Granger-causality from industry to GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Sima Siami-Namini, 2017. "Granger Causality Between Gross Domestic Product and Economic Sectors in Developing Countries: A Panel Co-integration Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 53-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-05-7
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sima Siami-Namini, 2019. "Agriculture and Non-Agriculture Growth, Inflation and Income Inequality in Developed and Developing Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(11), pages 43-51, November.
    2. Sima Siami-Namini & Daniel Muhammad & Fahad Fahimullah, 2018. "The Short and Long Run Effects of Selected Variables on Tax Revenue - A Case Study," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(5), pages 23-32, September.
    3. Cătălina MOTOFEI, 2020. "Agriculture And Manufacturing Sectors' Impact On The Gross Value Added - A Granger Causality Study For European Union And Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(22), pages 139-145.
    4. Sima Siami-Namini, 2019. "Agriculture and Non-Agriculture Growth, Inflation and Income Inequality in Developed and Developing Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(11), pages 1-43, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic sectors; Oil price; Developing countries; Panel Co-integration; Granger-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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