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Event Exchangeability: Probabilistic Sophistication Without Continuity or Monotonicity

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  • Chew Soo Hong
  • Jacob S. Sagi
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    Abstract

    Building on the Ramsey-de Finetti idea of event exchangeability, we derive a characterization of probabilistic sophistication without requiring any of the various versions of monotonicity, continuity, or comparative likelihood assumptions imposed by Savage (1954), Machina and Schmeidler (1992), and Grant (1995). Our characterization identifies a unique and finitely-additive subjective probability measure over an algebra of events. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00682.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

    Volume (Year): 74 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (05)
    Pages: 771-786

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    Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:74:y:2006:i:3:p:771-786

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    Cited by:
    1. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Do monetary incentives and chained questions affect the validity of risk estimates elicited via the Exchangeability Method? An experimental investigation," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125468, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Tomasz, Strzalecki, 2011. "Probabilistic sophistication and variational preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 2117-2125, September.
    3. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2012. "Probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 271-283.
    4. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the exchangeability method," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 201-215.
    5. Schipper, Burkhard C, 2010. "Revealed Unawareness," MPRA Paper 21491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Simon Grant & Jeff Kline & John Quiggin, 2006. "Lost in Translation: Honest Misunderstandings and Ex Post Disputes," Risk & Uncertainty Working Papers WP3R06, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    7. Grant, Simon & Kline, Jeff & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Differential awareness, ambiguity, and incomplete contracts: a model of contractual disputes," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151200, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    8. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier L'Haridon & Author-Name: Chen Li, 2013. "Learning under ambiguity: An experiment using initial public offerings on a stock market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201331, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    9. Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2012. "A genuine foundation for prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 97-113, October.
    10. Simon Grant & Jeff Kline & John Quiggin, 2009. "A Matter of Interpretation: Bargaining over Ambiguous Contracts," Risk & Uncertainty Working Papers WPR09_3, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    11. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Aurelien Baillon & Laetitia Placido & Peter P. Wakker, 2011. "The Rich Domain of Uncertainty: Source Functions and Their Experimental Implementation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 695-723, April.
    12. Epstein, Larry G. & Halevy, Yoram, 2014. "No Two Experiments are Identical," Microeconomics.ca working papers yoram_halevy-2014-9, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 22 Feb 2014.
    13. Soo Chew & Richard Ebstein & Songfa Zhong, 2012. "Ambiguity aversion and familiarity bias: Evidence from behavioral and gene association studies," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18, February.
    14. King Li, 2011. "Preference towards control in risk taking: Control, no control, or randomize?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 39-63, August.
    15. Kopylov, Igor, 2010. "Unbounded probabilistic sophistication," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 113-118, September.
    16. Chew, Soo Hong & Sagi, Jacob S., 2012. "An inequality measure for stochastic allocations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(4), pages 1517-1544.

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