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Event Exchangeability: Probabilistic Sophistication Without Continuity or Monotonicity

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  • Chew Soo Hong
  • Jacob S. Sagi
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    Abstract

    Building on the Ramsey-de Finetti idea of event exchangeability, we derive a characterization of probabilistic sophistication without requiring any of the various versions of monotonicity, continuity, or comparative likelihood assumptions imposed by Savage (1954), Machina and Schmeidler (1992), and Grant (1995). Our characterization identifies a unique and finitely-additive subjective probability measure over an algebra of events. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00682.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

    Volume (Year): 74 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (05)
    Pages: 771-786

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    Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:74:y:2006:i:3:p:771-786

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    Cited by:
    1. Simone Cerroni & Sandra Notaro & W. Douglass Shaw, 2011. "Do Monetary Incentives and Chained Questions Affect the Validity of Risk Estimates Elicited via the Exchangeability Method? An Experimental Investigation," Department of Economics Working Papers 1110, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    2. Kopylov, Igor, 2010. "Unbounded probabilistic sophistication," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 113-118, September.
    3. Tomasz Strzalecki, . "Probabilistic Sophistication and Variational Preferences," Working Paper 8337, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. Grant, Simon & Kline, Jeff & Quiggin, John, 2009. "A Matter of Interpretation: Bargaining over Ambiguous Contracts," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151190, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    5. Cerroni, Simone & Notaro, Sandra & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the exchangeability method," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 201-215.
    6. King Li, 2011. "Preference towards control in risk taking: Control, no control, or randomize?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 39-63, August.
    7. Epstein, Larry G. & Halevy, Yoram, 2014. "No Two Experiments are Identical," Microeconomics.ca working papers yoram_halevy-2014-9, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 22 Feb 2014.
    8. Grant, Simon & Kline, Jeff & Quiggin, John, 2006. "Lost in Translation: Honest Misunderstandings and Ex Post Disputes," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151177, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    9. Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2012. "A genuine foundation for prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 97-113, October.
    10. Burkhard Schipper, 2010. "Revealed Unawareness," Working Papers 105, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    11. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2012. "Probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 271-283.
    12. Chew, Soo Hong & Sagi, Jacob S., 2012. "An inequality measure for stochastic allocations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(4), pages 1517-1544.
    13. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff and Kyoungwon Seo, 2011. "Relevance and Symmetry," Economics Series Working Papers 539, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Soo Chew & Richard Ebstein & Songfa Zhong, 2012. "Ambiguity aversion and familiarity bias: Evidence from behavioral and gene association studies," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Grant, Simon & Kline, J. Jude & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Differential awareness, ambiguity, and incomplete contracts: A model of contractual disputes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 494-504.
    16. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier L'Haridon & Author-Name: Chen Li, 2013. "Learning under ambiguity: An experiment using initial public offerings on a stock market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201331, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    17. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Aurelien Baillon & Laetitia Placido & Peter P. Wakker, 2011. "The Rich Domain of Uncertainty: Source Functions and Their Experimental Implementation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 695-723, April.

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