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When Are Variance Ratio Tests for Serial Dependence Optimal?

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Faust, Jon

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Abstract

This paper considers a class of statistics that can be written as the ratio of the sample variance of a filtered time series to the sample variance of the original series. Any such statistic is shown to be optimal under normality for testing a null of white noise against some class of serially dependent alternatives. A simple characterization of the alternative class is provided. The results are used to show that a variance ratio test for mean reversion is an optimal test and to illustrate the forms of mean reversion it is best at detecting. Copyright 1992 by The Econometric Society.

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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 60 (1992)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 1215-26
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:60:y:1992:i:5:p:1215-26

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  1. Patrick A. Groenendijk & André Lucas & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "A Hybrid Joint Moment Ratio Test for Financial Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-104/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis and the Behavior of Foreign Capital Portfolio Flows: the Brazilian Stock Market Case," Working Papers Series 58, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Cosme Vodounou, 1998. "Inférence fondée sur les statistiques des rendements de long terme," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-20, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Graflund, Andreas, 2001. "Some Time Serial Properties of the Swedish Real Estate Stock Market, 1939-1998," Working Papers 2001:8, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "The Effects of the Brazilian ADRs Program on Domestic Market Efficiency," Working Papers Series 43, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June. [Downloadable!]
  7. Willa Chen & Rohit Deo, 2005. "The Variance Ratio Statistic at large Horizons," Econometrics 0501003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren\'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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