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Catalysing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programmes Work as Commitment Devices?

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  • Ashoka Mody
  • Diego Saravia

Abstract

In this article, we examine whether IMF programmes influence the ability of developing country issuers to tap international bond markets and if they improve spreads paid on the bonds issued. We find that Fund programmes do not provide a uniformly favourable signalling effect. Instead, the evidence is most consistent with a positive effect of IMF programmes when they are viewed as likely to lead to policy reform and when undertaken before economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly. The size of the Fund's programme matters but the credibility of a joint commitment by the country and the IMF appears to be critical. Copyright 2006 International Monetary Fund. Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2006.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 116 (2006)
Issue (Month): 513 (07)
Pages: 843-867

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:116:y:2006:i:513:p:843-867

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Cited by:
  1. Markus Jorra, 2010. "The Effect of IMF Lending on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201026, Philipps-Universit├Ąt Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  2. Diego Saravia, 2013. "Vulnerability, Crisis and Debt Maturity: Do IMF Interventions Shorten the Length of Borrowing?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 697, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Arpac, Ozlem & Bird, Graham & Mandilaras, Alex, 2008. "Stop Interrupting: An Empirical Analysis of the Implementation of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1493-1513, September.
  4. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2010. "The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 73-95, March.
  5. Goderis, Benedikt & Ioannidou, Vasso P., 2008. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 158-169, January.
  6. Marcel Fratzscher & Julien Reynaud, 2010. "IMF Surveillance and Financial Markets - A Political Economy Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3089, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Muhammet Bas & Randall Stone, 2014. "Adverse selection and growth under IMF programs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, March.
  8. Molly Bauer & Cesi Cruz & Benjamin Graham, 2012. "Democracies only: When do IMF agreements serve as a seal of approval?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 33-58, March.
  9. Luca Papi Author-Name-First Luca & Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2013. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," Working Papers CASMEF 1304, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  10. Zwart, Sanne, 2007. "The mixed blessing of IMF intervention: Signalling versus liquidity support," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 149-174, July.

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