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The Self-Perpetuation of Biased Beliefs

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Author Info
Wing Suen

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Abstract

To overcome strong prior beliefs, strong evidence to the contrary is needed. If a person is predisposed to choosing a certain action, the advice from an advisor who sets a low threshold for recommending the alternative action is not of much use. The preference for like-minded advisors who supply coarse information implies that the advice a person receives is likely to reinforce his existing priors. This effect can lead to polarisation of opinion and the emergence of self-serving beliefs. The learning process is prolonged and the induced short run bias can become perpetual if information is costly. Copyright 2004 Royal Economic Society.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 114 (2004)
Issue (Month): 495 (04)
Pages: 377-396
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:114:y:2004:i:495:p:377-396

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  1. Verheul, I. & Carree, M.A., 2008. "Overoptimism among Founders: The Role of Information and Motivation," Research Paper ERS-2008-008-ORG Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse Shapiro, 2005. "Media Bias and Reputation," NBER Working Papers 11664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bøg, Martin, 2006. "Whom to Observe?," MPRA Paper 8773, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2006. "What Drives Media Slant? Evidence from U.S. Daily Newspapers," NBER Working Papers 12707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

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