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Economic shocks and contagion in the euro area banking sector: a new micro-structural approach

Author

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  • Covi, Giovanni
  • Montagna, Mattia
  • Torri, Gabriele

Abstract

The financial system can become more vulnerable to systemic banking crises as the potential for contagion across financial institutions increases. This contagion risk could arise because of shifts in the interlinkages between financial institutions, including the volume and complexity of contracts between them, and because of shifts in the economic risks to which they are commonly exposed. Analysis of the euro area banking system’s interlinkages, using the newly available large exposure data, suggests that the system could be more vulnerable to financial contagion through long-term interbank exposures than noted in other studies. That said, common exposures to the real economy – a standard contagion channel in the literature – represent a potential source of individual bank distress and non-systemic events. This analysis also provides an insight into the changes in contagion risk in the system over time, helping us to interpret changes in market indicators of systemic risk, such as aggregated credit default swap (CDS) prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Covi, Giovanni & Montagna, Mattia & Torri, Gabriele, 2019. "Economic shocks and contagion in the euro area banking sector: a new micro-structural approach," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:fsrart:2019:0001:2
    Note: 2330794
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    Cited by:

    1. Linardi, Fernando & Diks, Cees & van der Leij, Marco & Lazier, Iuri, 2020. "Dynamic interbank network analysis using latent space models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Alexandros Skouralis, 2021. "Systemic Risk Spillovers Across the EURO Area," Working Papers 326919507, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Vacca, Valerio Paolo & Bichlmeier, Fabian & Biraschi, Paolo & Boschi, Natalie & Álvarez, Antonio J. Bravo & Di Primio, Luciano & Ebner, André & Hoeretzeder, Silvia & Ballesteros, Elisa Llorente & Mian, 2021. "Measuring the impact of a bank failure on the real economy: an EU-wide analytical framework," ESRB Working Paper Series 122, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Skouralis, Alexandros, 2021. "The role of systemic risk spillovers in the transmission of Euro Area monetary policy," ESRB Working Paper Series 129, European Systemic Risk Board.
    5. Kooths, Stefan & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2020. "Stabilitätspolitik in der Corona-Krise," Kiel Policy Brief 138, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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