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The role of technical factors in euro area inflation-linked swap rates

Author

Listed:
  • Munch Grønlund, Asger
  • Jørgensen, Kasper
  • Schupp, Fabian

Abstract

When long-term inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates for the euro area peaked in summer 2023, some observers expressed concerns that ILS rates reflected not only inflation compensation, but also non-fundamental “technical” factors. Such factors potentially reduced the usefulness of ILS rates in terms of gauging inflation expectations and risks. This box contributes to that discussion using a novel econometric approach, suggesting that there is, on average, little scope for technical factors to affect ILS rates. At the same time, the results also suggest that the signal from ILS rates may have been distorted somewhat during episodes of extremely high market volatility (e.g. the global financial crisis, the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine). However, those distortions were short-lived and mainly affected short-term ILS rates, while longer maturities appear to have been less affected. JEL Classification: E44, G12, G13

Suggested Citation

  • Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "The role of technical factors in euro area inflation-linked swap rates," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0003:7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; Market-based inflation compensation; market imperfections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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