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Why did the import intensity of GDP decline decline in 2023?

Author

Listed:
  • Lebastard, Laura
  • Olivero, Laura
  • Pongetti, Giacomo

Abstract

This box investigates the drivers of the weakness in euro area imports in 2023. After rebounding in mid-2022 as a result of the easing supply bottlenecks for goods and the lifting of mobility restrictions in the aftermath of the pandemic, the euro area imports-to-GDP ratio fell in the first quarter of 2023 and has remained at a lower level since then. We show this is mainly due to the composition of GDP growth following a period characterised by weak exports and consumption. These are two of the most import-intensive components of GDP, in particular exports, owing to the downstream position of the euro area in the supply chain. Destocking also had an important role in the decline, as well as the shift in consumption from goods to services, which are less import intensive. JEL Classification: F14, E21, E22, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Lebastard, Laura & Olivero, Laura & Pongetti, Giacomo, 2024. "Why did the import intensity of GDP decline decline in 2023?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0003:2
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    goods and services; import-adjusted demand; Import elasticity; inventories;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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