IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecb/ecbbox/202400021.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculation in oil and gas prices in times of geopolitical risks

Author

Listed:
  • Chiţu, Livia
  • Ferrari Minesso, Massimo
  • Manu, Ana-Simona

Abstract

Recent volatility in oil and gas prices has rekindled interest in understanding how much fundamental factors – global supply and demand – and non-fundamental factors contribute to price movements. This box constructs indices of speculation based on futures positions. Overall, speculation has only a limited role in both oil and gas price dynamics, although the degree of speculation is somewhat higher in European gas markets than in US gas markets. Empirical estimates also suggest that the role of speculation in amplifying the transmission of fundamental shocks to oil prices is limited, including in times of heightened geopolitical risk. JEL Classification: Q02, F01, F51

Suggested Citation

  • Chiţu, Livia & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2024. "Speculation in oil and gas prices in times of geopolitical risks," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0002:1
    Note: 1840305
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202402_01~b3d857ae05.en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gas prices; geopolitical risk; oil prices; speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0002:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.