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Friend-shoring global value chains: a model-based assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia
  • Boeckelmann, Lukas
  • Meunier, Baptiste

Abstract

This box presents a stylised, model-based, general equilibrium assessment of the global economic effects of trade fragmentation. The focus is on a rather extreme scenario in which two hypothetical geopolitical blocs raise barriers to trade in intermediate goods, causing a relocation of supply chains to countries within the same bloc (“friend-shoring”). Using a model developed by Baqaee and Farhi, we find that economic losses (in terms of welfare, trade and prices) can be sizeable, depending on the degree of rigidities embedded in the model. Effects are also heterogeneous across countries, as small, open economies that are reliant on global value chains are more affected. The findings in this box suggest that trade fragmentation would be a lose-lose situation for all parties involved and leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks. JEL Classification: F12, F13, O33

Suggested Citation

  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Boeckelmann, Lukas & Meunier, Baptiste, 2023. "Friend-shoring global value chains: a model-based assessment," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2023:0002:3
    Note: 930374
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fragmentation; international relations; International trade; rigidities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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