Global risks to the EU natural gas market

As a result of the Russian curtailment of gas deliveries, the EU gas market has become increasingly interlinked with the Asian market for liquified natural gas (LNG). This box analyses global risks to the EU gas market in 2023 by focusing on two supply risks: (i) the ongoing risk to the remaining gas imports from Russia, and (ii) a rebound in Chinese energy demand resulting from the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown measures. If the EU decides to extend its current gas saving plan to the end of 2023, it could avoid facing a supply deficit, as long as Russia continues to deliver gas at the current low levels and Chinese gas demand remains low. However, if Russia cuts the remaining gas supplies to the EU and Chinese gas demand rebounds to 2021 levels, the EU could face a supply deficit of around 9% of projected gas consumption, and if one of the supply risks materialises, the EU’s supply deficit would be 2-4%. While there are ways of plugging this gap, EU gas security would become vulnerable to other less foreseeable shocks. For example, severe weather or a prolonged cold spell could deplete gas storage levels faster than expected and worsen the 2023 gas outlook. JEL Classification: E21, E32