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The ECB’s communication on the economic outlook: a comparative analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ashwin, Julian
  • Dossche, Maarten
  • van Aerssen, Katrin Forster
  • Gomez-Salvador, Ramon
  • Kalamara, Eleni
  • Pierluigi, Beatrice

Abstract

This box reviews how the ECB’s communication on the economic outlook has evolved over time and how it compares with that of two other major central banks. Standard metrics reveal that over time the communication on the economic outlook has gradually become clearer, making monetary policy more transparent and effective. The ECB’s communication differs from that of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board, reflecting the differences in their monetary policy strategies. The ECB uses the term “money” more often, while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board communicate the terms “unemployment” and “slack” more frequently. Textual analysis underscores the importance of narratives in communicating quantitative economic forecasts. To build informative narratives, the ECB relies on a wide range of economic models, tools and surveys. JEL Classification: E30, E50

Suggested Citation

  • Ashwin, Julian & Dossche, Maarten & van Aerssen, Katrin Forster & Gomez-Salvador, Ramon & Kalamara, Eleni & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2022. "The ECB’s communication on the economic outlook: a comparative analysis," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2022:0008:6
    Note: 3577821
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank communication; Economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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