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The impact of the influx of Ukrainian refugees on the euro area labour force

Author

Listed:
  • Botelho, Vasco

Abstract

The influx of Ukrainian refugees is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the size of the euro area labour force. Back-of-an-envelope median estimates suggest that the influx of Ukrainian refugees could boost the euro area labour force by between 0.2% and 0.8% in the medium term, depending on the duration and the severity of the war. This would result in the labour force gaining between 0.3 and 1.3 million additional workers. However, labour market rigidities and other labour market frictions may slow down the integration process, with the result that Ukrainian refugees are likely to enter the labour force very gradually. JEL Classification: E24, J15, J21, J61

Suggested Citation

  • Botelho, Vasco, 2022. "The impact of the influx of Ukrainian refugees on the euro area labour force," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2022:0004:3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; labour force; refugees; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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