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The role of migration in weak labour force developments during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Bodnár, Katalin
  • O’Brien, Derry

Abstract

This box assesses the role of migration in weak labour force developments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The labour force in the euro area remains well below the dynamics expected before the outbreak of the pandemic. This gap reflects both a weaker than expected growth in the working age population and a lower than expected labour force participation rate. Subdued net immigration may have contributed to these developments, with some foreign workers resettling in their home countries. It is likely that several factors have weighed on inward migration flows, including weaker employment prospects, travel restrictions and pervasive uncertainty induced by the pandemic. The share of foreign workers in the euro area may gradually converge towards the levels expected pre-pandemic, but risks are overall tilted to the downside. JEL Classification: E32, J11, J21

Suggested Citation

  • Bodnár, Katalin & O’Brien, Derry, 2022. "The role of migration in weak labour force developments during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2022:0001:5
    Note: 2881411
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202201_05~111e069ef3.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bodnár, Katalin & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing," Occasional Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; labour supply; Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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