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Scarring effects of the pandemic on the global economy – reviewing recent evidence

Author

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  • Doleschel, Julia
  • Manu, Ana-Simona

Abstract

This box reviews recent data for evidence of scarring effects stemming from the coronavirus (COVID-19) shock on the global economy (excluding the euro area). Taking a production function approach perspective, it analyses recent data relevant for determining the evolution of potential output and compares them with developments in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The stylised facts suggest that the level of global potential output has declined during the pandemic, albeit less than during the Great Recession. This decline can mostly be attributed to temporary factors, although more lasting damage may occur if people remain out of work for longer, loose their skills or become long-term unemployed. JEL Classification: E22, E23, E24

Suggested Citation

  • Doleschel, Julia & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2021. "Scarring effects of the pandemic on the global economy – reviewing recent evidence," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2021:0007:1
    Note: 2663204
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Potential output; production function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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