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Disentangling aggregate and sectoral shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Dossche, Maarten
  • Zlatanos, Stylianos

Abstract

The growth slowdown in 2018-2019 was characterised by a marked divergence of industrial production and retail sales. This box seeks to uncover whether the euro area economy was hit by aggregate or sectoral shocks in this period. It finds that most of the growth slowdown can be explained by a series of adverse sectoral shocks. It also finds that, on average, sectoral shocks have a less persistent impact on economic activity than aggregate shocks. The recent COVID-19 shock is undoubtedly an aggregate shock. Yet its impact on economic activity over time remains very uncertain as its characteristics differ substantially from past aggregate shocks. JEL Classification: E21, E23, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Dossche, Maarten & Zlatanos, Stylianos, 2020. "Disentangling aggregate and sectoral shocks," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2020:0003:3
    Note: 3577821
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle fluctuations; Consumption; production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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