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Do Covid-19 mobility restrictions affect economic uncertainty in Italy? Evidence from a SVAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Casoli

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Luca Pedini

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences (Università Politecnica delle Marche))

  • Francesco Valentini

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences (Università Politecnica delle Marche))

Abstract

The implications of Covid-19 are severe not only in terms of healthcare, but also from a socio-economic perspective. However, its impact on economic systems and the evaluation of related policy decisions are difficult to assess due to lack of related data. One possibility is to focus on the epidemic induced economic uncertainty: in this article we investigate the links between individual mobility limitations due to the pandemic outbreak and the resulting economic distrust in Italy, measured with an ad hoc Google Trend index. We propose an analysis based on Structural Vector Autoregressive models discovering a persistent surge in economic uncertainty as a response to Covid-19 and mobility shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Casoli & Luca Pedini & Francesco Valentini, 2021. "Do Covid-19 mobility restrictions affect economic uncertainty in Italy? Evidence from a SVAR approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(4), pages 2418-2432.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-21-00637
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; mobility restrictions; economic uncertainty; structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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