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Econometric Models Of Inflation In Brazil: Structuralists, Monetarists And Rational Expectations Approachs, 1995-2017

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  • Andre Cutrim CARVALHO
  • David Ferreira CARVALHO

Abstract

The present article seeks to demonstrate the evolution of the inflation rate in Brazil during the period between the era of President Vargas and the government of President Michel Temer, together with the determinants of inflation between 1995 and 2017. With the aid of structuralist, monetarist, and inertialist econometric models, we attempt to understand the factors that influenced the inflation rate during this period, based on the monetarist models of rational and adaptive expectations. Once the regressions have been completed, we reach certain conclusions on the statistical significance level of the model and whether its variables have the power to explain the inflation rates in Brazil during the period following the Real Plan. Finally, we conclude that there are reasons to reject the hypothesis that the trend variable is adequately formulated to capture the effect of financial innovations in the equation for the demand for money.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre Cutrim CARVALHO & David Ferreira CARVALHO, 2019. "Econometric Models Of Inflation In Brazil: Structuralists, Monetarists And Rational Expectations Approachs, 1995-2017," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 91-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:19:y:2019:i:2_6
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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/~economet/reviews/aeid1926.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cutrim Carvalho, André & Ferreira Carvalho, David, 2019. "The performance of the brazilian economy: The development of inflation, growth and unemployment," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 28(1), pages 91-101.
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    Cited by:

    1. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2019. "World Development Report 2019: America," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 99-110.
    2. Cutrim Carvalho, André & Ferreira Carvalho, David, 2019. "The performance of the brazilian economy: The development of inflation, growth and unemployment," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 28(1), pages 91-101.

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    1. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2019. "World Development Report 2019: America," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 99-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Rational Expectations; Adaptive Expectations; Regression; Monetarist.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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