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Deutschland und der Euroraum profitieren wirtschaftlich kurzfristig von einer Zinserhöhung in den USA

Author

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  • Max Hanisch

Abstract

Um den wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung in den USA zu begleiten, hat die US-amerikanische Notenbank ihren Leitzins schritt- weise angehoben. In einer zunehmend globalisierten Welt, in der die US-Wirtschaft eine führende Rolle spielt, bleibt eine solche Entscheidung auf der internationalen Ebene nicht ohne Folgen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt anhand eines strukturellen dynamischen Faktormodells, dass die Mitgliedsstaaten der Eurozone – und hier insbesondere Deutschland – von einer restriktiven US-Geldpolitik temporär profitieren können. Die Abwertung des Euros gegenüber dem US-Dollar verbessert die Handelsbilanzen und induziert einen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung vor allem in denjenigen Euroländern, in denen die USA einen bedeutenden Exportanteil einnehmen.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Hanisch, 2018. "Deutschland und der Euroraum profitieren wirtschaftlich kurzfristig von einer Zinserhöhung in den USA," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(12), pages 245-251.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:85-12-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spillover effects; US monetary policy; Eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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