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Weak Investment Dampens Europe’s Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Baldi
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Malte Rieth

Abstract

In the course of the economic and financial crisis, investment activity, which was not very strong to begin with, in Europe and especially the Eurozone caved in. In relation to gross domestic product, fixed capital formation declined by four percentage points since 2008. Already prior to the crisis, investment activity was rather weak in parts of the Eurozone — amongst others in Germany. This finding is indicated by model simulations which account for country-specific macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand, especially in southern European economies, investment — mostly in the home construction sector — was markedly high before the crisis. These investments were however mainly financed by capital inflows from abroad. In the course of the crisis, foreign direct investment slumped and so did investment activity in these countries which has not been counterbalanced by higher investments in other parts of the monetary union. As a result, current investment in the Eurozone remains markedly below the level corresponding to macroeconomic conditions. When measured against this baseline, there was an underinvestment of around two percent on average in relation to gross domestic product between 2010 and 2012. This is associated with significant reductions in growth in the short and long run since the capital stock needed to maintain production capacity is growing rather slowly. If investment activity in the Eurozone had been correspondingly stronger, potential growth in the monetary union could have been 0.2 percentage points higher than observed since the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Baldi & Ferdinand Fichtner & Claus Michelsen & Malte Rieth, 2014. "Weak Investment Dampens Europe’s Growth," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 4(7), pages 8-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwdeb:2014-7-3
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.469261.de/diw_econ_bull_2014-07-3.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guido Baldi & Andre Bodmer, 2018. "Intangible Capital Formation, International Equity Investments, and Output Synchronization," Diskussionsschriften dp1810, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    2. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
    3. Andreea Ocolișanu & Gabriela Dobrotă & Dan Dobrotă, 2022. "The Effects of Public Investment on Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Guido Baldi & Patrick Harms, 2015. "Productivity Growth, Investment, and Secular Stagnation," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 83, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Dées, Stéphane & Andersson, Malin & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Forster, Katrin & Zorell, Nico & Audoly, Richard & Buelens, Christian & Compeyron, Guillaume & Ferrando, Annali, 2016. "Savings and investment behaviour in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 167, European Central Bank.
    6. Gerhard Fenz & Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider & Klaus Vondra & Walter Waschiczek, 2015. "Causes of declining investment activity in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 12-34.
    7. Bart van Ark, 2014. "Total factor productivity : Lessons from the past and directions for the future," Working Paper Research 271, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Bart van Ark, 2015. "From Mind the Gap to Closing the Gap. Avenues to Reverse Stagnation in Europe through Investment and Productivity Growth," European Economy - Discussion Papers 006, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Guido Baldi & Jakob Miethe, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 71, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; potential growth; construction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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