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The EMU-REER Spillovers on Southeastern European Economies: A G-VAR Model

Author

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  • Petros Golitsis
  • Sotirios K. Bellos
  • Anastasios Alexandridis

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the spillovers of Real Effective Exchange rate of European Monetary Union (EMU-REER) on Industrial Production, Real Effective Exchange rate, Foreign Reserves and interest rates for the South Eastern European (SEE) economies of Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, North Macedonia, Romania, and Slovenia, using monthly data over 2002–2016. In a global vector autoregressive framework with EMU-REER as a global variable, we show that the EMU variable has a lasting impact on the SEE variables and economies. Specifically, we provide strong evidence that this impact of EMU-REER is not only of a greater importance compared to the importance of the domestic variables, but also that it negatively affects the competitive stance of the investigated SEE economies, which is partly compensated by the lower interest rates that certain SEE countries face in return. Our results offer potential policy implications with respect to monetary policy coordination and discretion.

Suggested Citation

  • Petros Golitsis & Sotirios K. Bellos & Anastasios Alexandridis, 2020. "The EMU-REER Spillovers on Southeastern European Economies: A G-VAR Model," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(4), pages 259-290.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqaeq:v66_y2020_i4_q4_p259-290
    DOI: 10.3790/aeq.66.4.259
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real effective exchange rate; EMU and Southeastern Europe; international spillovers; global vector autoregression analysis; generalized impulse response analysis; transition countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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