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The Emperor Strikes Back: Political Status, Career Incentives and Grain Procurement during China's Great Leap Famine

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  • Kung, James Kai-sing

Abstract

Using China's Great Leap Famine as example, this article shows how political career incentives can produce disastrous outcomes under the well-intended policies of a dictator. By exploiting a regression discontinuity design, the study identifies the causal effect of membership status in the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee—full (FM) Versus alternate members (AM)—on grain procurement. It finds that the difference in grain procurement between AMs and FMs who ranked near the discontinuity threshold is three times that between all AMs and all FMs on average. This may explain why Mao exceptionally promoted some lower-ranked but radical FMs shortly before the Leap: to create a demonstration effect in order to spur other weakly motivated FMs into action.

Suggested Citation

  • Kung, James Kai-sing, 2014. "The Emperor Strikes Back: Political Status, Career Incentives and Grain Procurement during China's Great Leap Famine," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 179-211, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:2:y:2014:i:02:p:179-211_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2016. "“The Last, the Most Dreadful Resource of Nature”: Economic-Historical Reflections on Famine," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 225-241, June.
    2. Che, Jiahua & Chung, Kim-Sau & Lu, Yang K., 2017. "Decentralization and political career concerns," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 201-210.
    3. Kung, James Kai-sing & Zhou, Titi, 2021. "Political elites and hometown favoritism in famine-stricken China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 22-37.

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