Chapter III. The World Economy

Our view of the world economy has changed very little since August, or indeed since May. In terms both of successive forecasts and of predicted changes between successive years it is very much ‘the mixture as before’ even now that we have taken a first cautious look at the prospects for 1980. We still expect total output in the member countries of OECD to increase at a steady 3 1/2 per cent a year—too slowly, that is to say, to make any significant impact on unemployment—with any decline in the rate of inflation largely concentrated in some of the smaller countries where it has been particularly high. The annual growth of world trade still seems likely to remain within a range of 4–6 per cent. As before, however, we expect a continuing improvement in the current balance of payments of the developed and the centrally planned economies at the expense both of the oil producers and of the other developing countries.