Chapter IV. Production

The industrial production forecast presented in February 1968 was based upon an assumption that government policy would secure a rate of overall growth during the year (from the fourth quarter of 1967 to the fourth quarter of 1968) of 4 per cent with a year-on-year rise in gross domestic product of less than 3 per cent. In the event, while the rise in output during the year is estimated to have been just about the 4 per cent assumed, the year-on-year rise was somewhat greater than assumed—about 3½ per cent. Much of the unforeseen buoyancy of output in the earlier part of the year was related to the unexpected consumer boom. This is reflected in the comparison of actual industrial production with the forecast (table 2). The most serious underestimate of growth occurred in industries particularly affected by the consumption boom (textiles, consumer durables, metal goods, leather, pottery, furniture, paper and printing, and ‘other’ manufactures). Overall growth in industrial production, forecast a year ago at 3½ per cent, was about 4½ per cent; the forecast for growth in output of total manufactures, 4 per cent, was exceeded by a slightly larger margin, the actual out-turn being put at some 5½ per cent. The distribution of growth by industrial sector is shown in table 1; this indicates that the growth in output was widely spread, only mining and shipbuilding registering falls.