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Nowcasting Gdp Growth In A Small Open Economy

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  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Sivec, Vasja

Abstract

Nowcasting, that is, forecasting the current economic conditions, is a key ingredient for decision making, but it is complex, even more so for a small open economy, due to the higher volatility of its GDP. In this paper, we review the required steps, taking Luxembourg as an example. We consider both standard and alternative indicators, used as inputs in several nowcasting methods, including various factor and machine learning models. Overall, mixed frequency dynamic factor models and neural networks perform well, both in absolute terms and in relative terms with respect to a benchmark autoregressive model. The gains are larger during problematic times, such as the financial crisis and the recent Covid period.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2021. "Nowcasting Gdp Growth In A Small Open Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 256, pages 127-161, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:256:y:2021:i::p:127-161_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    2. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Bornali Bhandari & Sudipto Mundle, 2023. "Nowcasting India’s Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time-Varying Coefficient Regression Model (FA-TVCRM)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 213-234, March.
    3. Hwee Kwan Chow & Yijie Fei & Daniel Han, 2023. "Forecasting GDP with many predictors in a small open economy: forecast or information pooling?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 805-829, August.

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