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Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters

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  • Boero, Gianna
  • Smith, Jeremy
  • Wallis, Kenneth F.

Abstract

This article analyses the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth supplied by the individual respondents to the Bank of England's quarterly Survey of External Forecasters, 1996-2005, using a recently released dataset. This comprises a conventional incomplete panel dataset, with an additional dimension arising from the collection of repeated forecasts for the last quarter of each year. This fixed-event forecast structure allows study of the forecast revision process, its weak and strong efficiency, and its relation to macroeconomic news. The collection of density forecasts as well as point forecasts allows study of the revision process of forecast uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 203, pages 68-77, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:203:y:2008:i::p:68-77_9
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