Britain's Productivity Gap with the United States and Europe: A Historical Perspective

Since the mid-1990s, an almost universal belief has developed amongst economic commentators that the United States has undergone a productivity miracle and that European economies are now suffering from chronic sclerosis. As a result, the ‘American model’ dominates the agenda of policy towards growth and productivity performance in Britain. This paper urges caution here, given the disappointing experience of earlier British growth policies based on borrowing from the fashionable economy of the moment, including the Japanese and German economies during the 1970s and 1980s, and the American economy (again) during the 1950s and 1960s. A historical perspective suggests that: (1) successful productivity performance requires a stable institutional framework for long-term investments in human and physical capital, which the European model has been particularly good at providing over the last half century; (2) a country is constrained by its geography, so that copying without adaptation to local circumstances is rarely a good policy; (3) it is important to pay attention to the different sectors of the economy when formulating policy.