IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/nierev/v181y2002ip55-68_9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Section II. The forecast in detail

Author

Listed:
  • Anonymous

Abstract

It seems likely that the economy expanded rapidly in the second quarter following a virtual standstill in GDP growth in the two quarters at the turn of the year. The bounce back in growth is likely to be somewhat stronger than we had anticipated in April. Our estimates of monthly GDP suggest that the economy grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2002 led by strong growth in industrial production of 1.7 per cent. Output in the private service sector is also estimated to have risen rapidly by 1.4 per cent. The pick-up in the industrial sector in the second quarter is primarily a consequence of stronger external demand. Trade data to May suggest that growth in export volumes rose markedly in the first two months of the second quarter. We expect that export volumes rose by just under 5 per cent in the quarter as a whole, increasing GDP by around 1½ per cent. At the same time growth in the demand for imports has risen, albeit by less than the acceleration in export growth. Net trade is expected to have added 0.75 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Suggested Citation

  • Anonymous, 2002. "Section II. The forecast in detail," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 181, pages 55-68, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:181:y:2002:i::p:55-68_9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0027950100009649/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:181:y:2002:i::p:55-68_9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.