IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v20y2016i08p2010-2045_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamics Of Stagnation: A Panel Analysis Of The Onset And Continuation Of Stagnation

Author

Listed:
  • Bluhm, Richard
  • de Crombrugghe, Denis
  • Szirmai, Adam

Abstract

This paper analyzes periods of economic stagnation in a panel of countries. We test whether stagnation can be predicted by institutional characteristics and political shocks and compare the impacts of such variables with those of traditional macroeconomic variables. We examine the determinants of stagnation episodes using dynamic linear and nonlinear models. In addition, we analyze whether the effects of the included variables on the onset of stagnation differ from their effects on the continuation of stagnation. We find that inflation, negative regime changes, real exchange rate undervaluation, financial openness, and trade openness have significant effects on both the onset and the continuation of stagnation. Only for trade openness is there robust evidence of a differential impact. Open economies have a significantly lower probability of falling into stagnation, but once in stagnation they do not recover faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Bluhm, Richard & de Crombrugghe, Denis & Szirmai, Adam, 2016. "The Dynamics Of Stagnation: A Panel Analysis Of The Onset And Continuation Of Stagnation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(8), pages 2010-2045, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:08:p:2010-2045_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1365100515000231/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Federico Riccio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2022. "Specialize or diversify? And in What? Trade composition, quality of specialization, and persistent growth [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 301-337.
    2. Spinola, Danilo, 2023. "Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    3. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Kaba, Ibrahima & Szirmai, Adam, 2015. "Structural change and the ability to sustain growth," MERIT Working Papers 2015-048, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:08:p:2010-2045_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/mdy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.