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Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning

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  • Chapman, Gretchen B.
  • Liu, Jingjing

Abstract

Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation occurred primarily for participants who scored high in numeracy. This finding suggests that even comprehension and manipulation of natural frequencies requires a certain threshold of numeracy abilities, and that the beneficial effects of natural frequency presentation may not be as general as previously believed.

Suggested Citation

  • Chapman, Gretchen B. & Liu, Jingjing, 2009. "Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 34-40, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:34-40_3
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