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A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators

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  • Han, Ying
  • Budescu, David

Abstract

We propose a new method to facilitate comparison of aggregated forecasts based on different aggregation, elicitation and calibration methods. Aggregates are evaluated by their relative position on the cumulative distribution of the corresponding individual scores. This allows one to compare methods using different measures of quality that use different scales. We illustrate the use of the method by re-analyzing various estimates from Budescu and Du (Management Science, 2007).

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Ying & Budescu, David, 2019. "A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 395-411, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:4:p:395-411_2
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