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Policy options for state pension systems and their impact on plan liabilities

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  • NOVY-MARX, ROBERT
  • RAUH, JOSHUA D.

Abstract

We calculate the present value of state pension liabilities under existing policies and separately under policy changes that would affect pension payouts. If promised payments are viewed as default free, then it is appropriate to use discount rates given by the Treasury yield curve. If plans are frozen at June 2009 levels, then the present value of liabilities would be $4.4 trillion. Under the typical actuarial method of recognizing future service and wage increases, this figure rises to $5.2 trillion. Compared to $1.8 trillion in pension fund assets, the baseline level of unfunded liabilities is therefore around $3 trillion. A 1 percentage point reduction in cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) would lower total liabilities by 9–11%; implementing actuarially fair early retirement would reduce them by 2–5%; and increasing the retirement age by 1 year would reduce them by 2–4%. Dramatic policy changes, such as the elimination of COLAs or the implementation of Social Security retirement age parameters, would leave liabilities around $1.5 trillion more than plan assets. This suggests that taxpayers will bear the lion's share of the costs associated with the legacy liabilities of state DB pension plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Novy-Marx, Robert & Rauh, Joshua D., 2011. "Policy options for state pension systems and their impact on plan liabilities," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 173-194, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:10:y:2011:i:02:p:173-194_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua D. Rauh, 2015. "Why City Pension Problems Have Not Improved, and a Roadmap Forward," Economics Working Papers 15101, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Mitchell, O.S. & Piggott, J., 2016. "Workplace-Linked Pensions for an Aging Demographic," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 865-904, Elsevier.
    3. Jeffrey R. Brown & Robert Clark & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "The Economics of State and Local Public Pensions," NBER Working Papers 16792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Splinter, David, 2017. "State pension contributions and fiscal stress," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 65-80, January.
    5. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Linking Benefits to Investment Performance in US Public Pension Systems," NBER Working Papers 18491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert L. Clark & Robert G. Hammond & Melinda S. Morrill & David Vanderweide, 2017. "Annuity Options in Public Pension Plans: The Curious Case of Social Security Leveling," NBER Working Papers 23262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2017. "Inflation Rates Are Very Different When Housing Rents Are Accurately Measured," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 71, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Dominique Durant & David Lenze & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2014. "Adding Actuarial Estimates of Defined-Benefit Pension Plans to National Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 151-203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:nbr:nberch:12836 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Novy-Marx, Robert & Rauh, Joshua D., 2014. "Linking benefits to investment performance in US public pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-61.

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