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Davids, Goliaths, and Business Cycles

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  • Duarte, Jefferson
  • Kapadia, Nishad

Abstract

We show that a simple, intuitive variable, Goliath versus David (GVD), reflects time variation in discount rates related to changes in aggregate business conditions. GVD is the annual change in the weight of the largest 250 firms in the aggregate stock market and is motivated by research that shows that small firms are more severely impacted than large firms by economic shocks due to differences in access to external finance. We find that GVD is the best single predictor of out-of-sample market returns among traditional predictors, predicting quarterly market returns with an out-of-sample R 2 of 6.3% in the 1976–2011 evaluation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Duarte, Jefferson & Kapadia, Nishad, 2017. "Davids, Goliaths, and Business Cycles," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2429-2460, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:52:y:2017:i:06:p:2429-2460_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    2. Bao, Jack & Hou, Kewei & Zhang, Shaojun, 2023. "Systematic default and return predictability in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 349-377.
    3. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2019. "What Goliaths and Davids among Swiss firms tell us about expected returns on Swiss asset markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-17, December.

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