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A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851 1913, and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles

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Author Info
BURHOP, CARSTEN
WOLFF, GUNTRAM B.

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Abstract

We develop a compromise estimate of the German Net National Product for the years 1851 1913 based on four estimates from Hoffmann (1965) and Hoffmann and M ller (1959) by recalculating industrial production, investment, home and foreign capital income. Because differences remain during the early decades, we compute a weighted average compromise series. Economic activity is shown to be higher than the older estimates suggest. The average growth rate is lower. The average business cycle lasted five years, with high volatility in the early decades. The typical Gr nderzeit pattern of boom then prolonged recession after 1873 can not be confirmed.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal The Journal of Economic History.

Volume (Year): 65 (2005)
Issue (Month): 03 (September)
Pages: 613-657
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Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:65:y:2005:i:03:p:613-657_00

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  1. Albrecht Ritschl & Martin Uebele, 2005. "Stock Markets and Business Cycle Comovement in Germany before World War I: Evidence from Spectral Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Thorsten Lübbers, 2009. "Is Cartelisation Profitable? A Case Study of the Rhenish Westphalian Coal Syndicate, 1893-1913," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2009_09, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. [Downloadable!]
  3. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2007. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870-2003," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-404. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Henrekson, Magnus & Edquist, Harald, 2006. "Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth," Working Paper Series 665, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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