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Hedging with Futures and Options under a Truncated Cash Price Distribution

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  • Hanson, Steven D.
  • Myers, Robert J.
  • Hilker, James H.

Abstract

Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under a range of different truncation scenarios. Empirical results highlight the impacts of basis risk and yield risk on the optimal futures and options portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanson, Steven D. & Myers, Robert J. & Hilker, James H., 1999. "Hedging with Futures and Options under a Truncated Cash Price Distribution," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 449-459, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:31:y:1999:i:03:p:449-459_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Dabin & Tomek, William G., 2005. "Characterizing Distributions of Class III Milk Prices: Implications for Risk Management," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19322, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Zhang, Rui (Carolyn) & Houston, Jack E. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Barnett, Barry J., 2008. "Impacts of government risk management policies on hedging in futures and options:LPM2 hedge model vs. EU hedge model," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37610, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Forde, Martin & Kumar, Rohini & Zhang, Hongzhong, 2015. "Large deviations for the boundary local time of doubly reflected Brownian motion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 262-268.
    4. Ramsey, A. Ford & Tack, Jesse B. & Balota, Maria, 2021. "Double or Nothing: Impacts of Warming on Crop Quantity, Quality, and Revenue," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(1), January.
    5. Qingpei Zang & Lixin Zhang, 2019. "Asymptotic Behaviour of the Trajectory Fitting Estimator for Reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 183-201, March.
    6. Xing, Liu & Pietola, Kyosti, 2005. "Forward Hedging Under Price and Production Risk of Wheat," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24467, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Finger, Robert, 2012. "How strong is the “natural hedge”? The effects of crop acreage and aggregation levels," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122538, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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