The Responsiveness of U.S. Rice Acreage to Price and Production Costs

Ordinary least squares and seemingly unrelated regression procedures were used to analyze the impacts of changes in rice prices and production costs on U.S. rice planted acreage. National and regional response models were estimated over the 1970-92 period. Supply-inducing prices of rice were estimated as a function of effective rice support prices and seasonal average market prices. Expected production costs per acre were estimated using lagged actual total variable cash production expenses per acre adjusted by the previous 3-year average annual change in variable expenses. Estimated short-run price and production cost elasticities were found to be inelastic at the national level. However, the magnitude of the production cost elasticities were found to be greater than the price elasticities. Estimated long-run elasticities at the U.S. level were inelastic for changes in price but elastic for changes in production costs. Although acreage response varied across regions, similar relationships were found between price and production cost elasticities.