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Alternative Bias Approximations in Regressions with a Lagged-Dependent Variable

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Author Info
Kiviet, Jan F.
Phillips, Garry D.A.

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Abstract

The small sample bias of the least-squares coefficient estimator is examined in the dynamic multiple linear regression model with normally distributed whitenoise disturbances and an arbitrary number of regressors which are all exogenous except for the one-period lagged-dependent variable. We employ large sample (T ) and small disturbance ( 0) asymptotic theory and derive and compare expressions to O(T 2), respectively, for the bias in the least-squares coefficient vector. In some simulations and for an empirical example, we examine the mean (squared) error of these expressions and of corrected estimation procedures that yield estimates that are unbiased to O(T 2), respectively. The large sample approach proves to be superior, easily applicable, and capable of generating more efficient and less biased estimators.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 9 (1993)
Issue (Month): 01 (January)
Pages: 62-80
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Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:01:p:62-80_00

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  1. Rafal Raciborski, 2008. "Searching for additional sources of inflation persistence : the micro-price panel data approach," Research series 200804-04, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  2. James G. MacKinnon & Anthony A. Smith, 1995. "Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics," Working Papers 919, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jan F. Kiviet & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2000. "Improved Coefficient and Variance Estimation in Stable First-Order Dynamic Regression Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0631, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yihui Lan, 2001. "The Long-Run Value of Currencies: A Big Mac Perspective," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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