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Econometric Methodology at the Cowles Commission: Rise and Maturity

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  • Malinvaud, E.

Abstract

Considering the contribution of the Cowles research institute to the development of econometrics, one has little choice in this address and must mainly focus attention on one major achievement, namely, the building of the simultaneous equation methodology. One does not need to demonstrate the indisputable fact that this methodology was conceived and elaborated at the Cowles Commission in the forties. Neither does one need to insist on the long standing significance of this achievement nor on its central place in any education or reflection concerning statistical inference about economic phenomena. More interesting is the question of how research at Cowles during the first 15 years of its existence led to this result and how further econometric research here during the last 30 years relates to the simultaneous equation achievement. Also relevant is the following question: how does the message that was sent out by the Cowles people to the world in 1950 stand today? Should it be replaced by another different one? Or should it simply be somewhat amended and supplemented?To do full justice to the research work and achievements of the many econometricians that were associated with Cowles through the years would require a much longer paper than the present one. But one must at least try also to summarize here those main concerns that stood outside the simultaneous equation methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Malinvaud, E., 1988. "Econometric Methodology at the Cowles Commission: Rise and Maturity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 187-209, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:4:y:1988:i:02:p:187-209_01
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    Cited by:

    1. André Lapidus, 2020. "Why are philosophers more often right than others ? David Hume and general rules [David Hume et les règles générales : Pourquoi les philosophes ont-ils plus raison que les autres ?]," Post-Print hal-01714256, HAL.
    2. Rahmanov, Ramiz, 2014. "A Historical Sketch of Macroeconometrics," MPRA Paper 56869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. André Lapidus, 2018. "Why are philosophers more often right than others ? David Hume and general rules [Pourquoi les philosophes ont-ils plus raison que les autres ? David Hume et les règles générales]," Working Papers hal-01714256, HAL.
    4. Sandra J. Peart, 2020. "On fallibility and perfection: Boettke’s Hayek vs. mainline economics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 271-276, March.
    5. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Bjerkholt,O., 2001. "Tracing Haavelmo's steps from confluence analysis to the probability approach," Memorandum 25/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

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