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Quantile Double Autoregression

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  • Zhu, Qianqian
  • Li, Guodong

Abstract

Many financial time series have varying structures at different quantile levels, and also exhibit the phenomenon of conditional heteroskedasticity at the same time. However, there is presently no time series model that accommodates both of these features. This paper fills the gap by proposing a novel conditional heteroskedastic model called “quantile double autoregression”. The strict stationarity of the new model is derived, and self-weighted conditional quantile estimation is suggested. Two promising properties of the original double autoregressive model are shown to be preserved. Based on the quantile autocorrelation function and self-weighting concept, three portmanteau tests are constructed to check the adequacy of the fitted conditional quantiles. The finite sample performance of the proposed inferential tools is examined by simulation studies, and the need for use of the new model is further demonstrated by analyzing the S&P500 Index.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Qianqian & Li, Guodong, 2022. "Quantile Double Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 793-839, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:38:y:2022:i:4:p:793-839_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Kai Yang & Qingqing Zhang & Xinyang Yu & Xiaogang Dong, 2023. "Bayesian inference for a mixture double autoregressive model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 77(2), pages 188-207, May.
    2. Li, Dong & Tao, Yuxin & Yang, Yaxing & Zhang, Rongmao, 2023. "Maximum likelihood estimation for α-stable double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).

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